DIHK-Economic-Survey Fall 2018
The DIHK has made a survey about the economic situation and the forecasts for next year. In the following, you will see a brief outline about the growth, the exports, the labour market and how thinks might develop, in the future facing different issues and challenges.
- The situation is getting more serious and companies look out more worried to the future, which is clear to see in the expectations of export and in their future businesses. Although the situation seems quite unstable, the plans of investment and employment are stable, which gives the whole situation a certain stability.
- In this year, DIHK has lowered the growth rate prognose already twice, from 2,7% at the beginning of the year, to 2,2% in summer and now to 1,8%. But because of the good situation at the beginning of the year, the companies had high expectations towards this year´s development, but it was left behind the expectations.
- The growth forecast for 2019, provided by DIHK, will be around 1,7%, even though there will be financial aid towards the politics with a total value of 0,6% of the GDP. Worries of DIHK are based on the export becoming weaker, but on the other hand consumption is becoming a more and more important support for the economics. A reason for this development is the strong labour market with a growing monthly income which is also connected to a generally good world economy situation and therefore the export growth for Germany.
- Employment is developing well, this year will be a total plus of 580.000 working places and the prognose for 2019 foreshadows a plus of 500.000 working places. DIHK reports a certain decoupling between economic growth and the increasement of the labour market, but this increasement will only work, when national potential is fully exhausted and, in the meantime, skilled workers from other European countries or third countries come to Germany. For this goal Germany will need a regulation for immigration of skilled workers.
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