AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2018

AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2018

In Fall 2018, the DIHK has published the AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2018 that summarizes the current global economic situation and development. The global economic growth has become slower and the growth rate was lower than expected. The United States of America recorded an exceptional boom because of their tax reform. But nevertheless the global economic situation is rather difficult and companies see the current situation as their biggest danger for their foreign commerce.

For the AHK World Business Outlook Herbst 2018 (German) please click here 

For the AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2018 (English) please click here

For the table with all the results of each country, please click here


Statement of DIHK president Eric Schweitzer and DIHK head of foreign trade Volker Treier towards the AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2018

Eric Schweitzer and Volker Treier gave both a statement on the current economical situation as well as on the expected development of the global trade.

Schweitzer states that after midterms in the US, a change in the trade policy is not in sight, even the democratics seem to be skeptical towards a free trade agreement. The whole economic situation in the US, especially regarding the trade dispute with the People´s republic of China will influence the German economy, as Germany has strong representations in China and the US. Nevertheless, an ease of tensions might be in sight by 2020 after the G20 in Buenos Aires. But it has to be kept in mind that a solution has to be multilateral and it cannot be the goal that China and the US might agree with each other on the cost of European exports.

To read the whole statement of Eric Schweitzer, please click here (in German)

 

Treier refers on the global situation and points out some frightening developments. He concerns that the global GDP has grown about 3,6%, which is around 0,4% lower than the given forecast. The longterm growth is being forecasted at around 3,8%. The export forecast for German of DIHK this year had to be lowered from 6,5% down to 2,8%. This forecast means that 55bn. Euro that were expected will be missing in the order books. Furthermore every 4th employment is bound to the export which emphasizes the importance of German exports. The significant question for the future though is, how the global trade will develop and how conflicts will develop. These days conflicts typically bring frequent threats and ease of tensions which brings a certain unsecurity. It´s very important that the European Union will take the position as the “first runner” and show that global trade is a win-win.

To read the whole statement of Volker Treier, please click here (in German)

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