DIHK Publishes Economic Survey
The German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag, DIHK) published the results of the recent economic survey of the IHK organization and gave an outlook for the German industries and economic for 2019.
Here are the main key points:
- The economic picture in Germany is deteriorating significantly and especially the industry suffer from the foreign economic environment. After nine years of growth, the domestic economy is beginning to weaken. In addition, many companies that could actually be better off are lacking professionals to grow further (risk shortage of skilled specialist: 61%, construction: 81%).
- Therefore, business expectations are perceived as significantly lower in all economic sectors. Domestic and foreign domestic demand concerns are noticeably increasing (domestic demand: 38% after 34%, foreign demand: 37% after 33%). Investment and employment intentions have also eased noticeably over the last year. Despite the long upswing, according to companies, a political upheaval on important future issues in Germany has not been successful.
- Due to those new circumstances the DIHK corrects its earlier expectations of a growth of 1,7% down to 0,9%. Nevertheless, the DIHK does not expect an economic crisis, but still doesn’t preclude an even bigger decrease, especially considering a possible chaotic Brexit or the trade conflicts between the USA, EU and China. The current situation shows that growth isn’t a matter of course and more work should be done to improve the contestability.
- So far, the slowing economy only leads to minor adjustment in personnel planning. Employment growth will therefore continue in the fourteenth year but will lose momentum. We expect an increase of 430,000 workers this year (Fall 2018: 500,000). At the same time, many companies have never seen labour costs hinder their business as now. (43% compared to 41% recently).
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