The assessments of more than 900 companies with a connection to Germany show: The region remains hugely important, but geopolitical pressure is increasing - and it is becoming more difficult to plan business activities. Asia-Pacific is of outstanding importance for the German economy: around 40 per cent of German foreign trade outside the EU is now accounted for by this region - more than the whole of America combined. By comparison, total non-European trade with North, South and Central America is only 26 per cent.
"The Asian market remains a strategic future market for many companies - but the environment is getting tougher," warns Volker Treier, Head of Foreign Trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). "Geopolitics, economic policy uncertainty and new trade barriers are driving many companies to stop investing or even withdraw."
In Asia-Pacific outside the Chinese economic area (also known as Greater China), 38 per cent of companies currently report a good business situation - three percentage points more than in autumn 2024. At the same time, the proportion of negative feedback continues to decline at 15 per cent This indicates a noticeable, albeit modest, recovery. The picture is particularly positive in Sri Lanka (54 per cent good) and the Philippines (58 per cent good). In South Korea (17 per cent good, 36 per cent bad) and the People's Republic of China (25 per cent good, 29 per cent bad), on the other hand, caution and scepticism prevail. Companies in Greater China, i.e. the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, are even more pessimistic. Only 25 per cent in these countries report a good business situation, while 27 per cent see it as poor - a slight deterioration compared to autumn. The outlook also remains cautious: Only 27 per cent of companies in this sub-region expect an improvement, while 16 per cent anticipate a deterioration.
In the rest of the region, the outlook is somewhat more favourable: At 49 per cent the proportion of confident companies is considerable - even if it is slightly lower than in autumn. Overall, the positive expectations outweigh the negative ones in most cases. In India and Sri Lanka in particular, around two thirds of companies expect business to improve. Optimism also remains high in the Philippines, where 65 per cent expect an improvement in the coming 12 months, while only 3 per cent of companies expect their business to deteriorate.
Risk shift: trade barriers and politics alongside demand
While 51 per cent of companies outside of China cited weak demand as the greatest risk last autumn, this figure is now down to 49 per cent. Although the demand issue still tops the risk list, it has lost some of its significance - possibly a sign that some sales markets are stabilising again. On the other hand, other risks are becoming much more of a focus: 37 per cent of companies outside Greater China currently rate trade barriers as a risk, compared to 23 per cent in autumn 2024. Economic policy uncertainties increased by 7 percentage points to 44 per cent, reflecting the ongoing nervousness in the region. And 41 per cent of companies also rate exchange rate fluctuations as a key business risk.
"We are seeing a clear shift in risk perception - away from market developments and towards politically and currency-motivated disruptions," says Volker Treier. "Trade barriers and political intervention in particular are noticeably changing the rules of the game in international business." In Greater China, the risk perception is even more differentiated: The trade conflict between the USA and the People's Republic of China is casting its shadow here. At 71 per cent, weak demand is the most frequently cited risk here. 43 per cent cite trade barriers as a local business risk - an increase of three percentage points compared to autumn 2024.
Investment and employment: South and Southeast Asia in the lead
In India, 53 per cent of companies are currently planning to expand their investments locally. In the Philippines, this figure is 44 per cent. The willingness to invest also remains high in Vietnam (38 per cent) and Sri Lanka (33 per cent). Companies in the People's Republic of China are much more cautious: only 16 per cent want to invest more there, while 33 per cent plan to cut back. The picture is similarly negative in South Korea, where only 17 per cent plan to increase investment. There are also clear differences in terms of employment intentions: In India, the Philippines and Malaysia, more than 40 per cent of companies intend to create new jobs. In South Korea, on the other hand, a quarter of companies are planning to cut jobs.
US trade policy increases uncertainty
The US trade policy in particular, with potential countermeasures from affected countries, is weighing on the mood of companies in the region. In markets outside China, 61 per cent of companies expect negative effects on their activities, in Greater China the figure is as high as 72 per cent. The "Liberation Day" proclaimed by the US government at the beginning of April 2025 with the announcement of new punitive tariffs has fuelled great uncertainty. In Singapore, 93 per cent of companies expect an impact, in South Korea the figure is 89 per cent. "Liberation Day had a real booster effect on companies' negative responses," emphasises Treier. "The expectation of a new level of escalation in the global trade conflict has now become a reality in many places."
Global challenges: Fragmentation and barriers dominate
When looking to the future, one topic dominates: trade barriers. In almost all markets, they are among the biggest challenges for the next five years - especially in Singapore (89 per cent), China and India (over 80 per cent each). Geopolitical fragmentation and the need to broaden supply chains are also key. In Greater China, 71 per cent of companies see de-coupling as a pressing problem. "Global markets are fraying - and companies need to strategically realign their supply chains and locations," says Treier, summarising the results. "This requires time, capital and political planning security - both of which are currently in short supply."
Indonesia in focus - 100 years of EKONID
Indonesia is developing into an anchor of stability for the German economy in a turbulent region. 36 per cent of local companies report a good business situation and almost one in two are optimistic about the future. The country is also at the forefront of investment in the region. A strong sign of the partnership that has grown: on 4 June, AHK Indonesia (EKONID) celebrates its 100th anniversary in Jakarta. With over 400 members, it is now the largest European chamber in the country - and an important bridge builder between the two economies. Accompanied by DIHK President Peter Adrian, new collaborations with Indonesian partners are launched as part of the anniversary celebrations - a clear commitment to the future of the location.
Visit DIHK's official website for the complete survey results.