"International markets are an anchor of stability for many companies," says DIHK Foreign Trade Director Volker Treier. "They are demonstrating there that they can compete – even if Germany as a location is currently providing them with little tailwind."
Globally, 44 per cent of companies expect better business – in Germany, however, the figure is only 15 per cent. The upturn remains fragile, but the direction is clear: growth is happening beyond Germany's borders. This is also reflected in investment and employment plans. Abroad, 29 per cent of companies want to increase their investments, while only 16 per cent plan to cut back. In terms of personnel, 33 per cent intend to increase their workforce, while 17 per cent expect to reduce it. Domestically, however, companies planning to reduce their workforce far outnumber those planning to increase it.
Many companies are responding to changing political and economic conditions and consequently shifting their investment decisions to areas where demand is growing and, in future, to areas where market access is linked to local value creation. This is particularly evident in China, where only 18 per cent of German companies rate their current situation as good, yet more than a quarter (26 per cent) want to expand their investments – significantly more than in spring. This is happening partly because market access is linked to local production, but also to leverage China's considerable innovative strength and access to raw materials to position the company in global competition.
At the same time, the number of risks in international business continues to increase. Almost every second company (48 per cent) cites Economic policy as business risk, 47 per cent com[1]plain about weak demand. Added to this are rising exchange rate risks (31 percent) and new trade barriers (25 percent). "International division of labour is no longer a sure-fire success. Market access must increasingly be fought for politically – those who bear excessive costs or are slowed down by regulations lose market share. The global economy is trying to find a new balance – but this 'new normal' is working against us for the time being: global markets are shaped by power politics, not opened up per se. In any case, those who fail to secure their competitiveness will be squeezed out."
US trade policy also continues to have a noticeable impact worldwide. The initial uncertainty in the economy about the erratic and burdensome measures from Washington has now given way to a phase of disillusionment and strategic adjustment. 44 per cent of German companies at their foreign locations report negative or strongly negative effects – from tariffs and export controls to local content requirements. Although German companies' willingness to invest worldwide has recovered after the tariff shock in spring, there has been no investment boom. This applies above all to the investment plans of German companies in the US itself. There, plans remain below the international average and significantly lower than a year ago: while only 24 per cent are currently planning additional investments in the US, this figure was 37 per cent in Fall 2024.
The weak economic momentum in Germany is having a direct negative impact on export expectations. After three years of decline, the DIHK also expects a 1 per cent drop in 2025. A slight increase of 0.5 per cent is not expected until 2026. Germany is therefore benefiting only to a limited extent from global growth.
Treier calls for decisive political action: "The rules of global trade are being rewritten – and those who fail to secure market access through robust trade agreements or remain structurally too expensive will lose out. This is not about isolationism, but about connectivity. Germany and Europe must take targeted measures to strengthen the competitiveness of their companies: through reliable energy prices, faster procedures, tax relief and new trade agreements. Only then can our companies participate in global growth again – and help shape it, instead of lagging behind.”